Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
